Dragging

Credit Suisse is projecting lower earnings for CBS and Fox because NFL ratings are dropping. It depends on how exactly you calculate the numbers but ratings are generally down 16-18% from two years ago. You'll see a less dramatic decrease from last year to this year but that's because last year was already a record low. The bottom line is something is definitely hurting NFL ratings and anthem protests seem to be a major part of that.

As for me, I haven't watched a snap of NFL football since the Sunday night game the week the NFL was responding to Trump's tweets. I also bought Coke instead of Pepsi the last few times at the store since Pepsi is the official NFL soft drink. Not sure how long this will last but I'm definitely finding myself doing something I never would have expected.

Taking A Knee

I hadn't really followed the commentary around Trump's tweeting about NFL protests last week and I was out of town for part of Sunday so it wasn't until shortly before the Sunday night game that I was somewhat caught up on what was going on. I did turn the game on, but after seeing so many of the Raiders and a few Redskins kneeling I walked out of the room. I turned it off a few minutes later, though part of that was due to audio issues they were having with the broadcast. Still, I have to say that while I've disliked the anthem protests all along, this Sunday made a difference. The league decided to get behind these players and for the first time I find myself disliking the league as a whole, not just some of the players. I'm not sure I'm ready to quit but I'm actually finding myself thinking about it. I have to think there are other fans thinking the same, especially since NFL fans tend to skew Republican, and turn out to vote. Alejandro Villenueva, NFL lineman and U.S. Army veteran, the only Steeler to stand outside the tunnel for the anthem, has the best-selling jersey in the last 24 hours. I'd buy a shirt myself but the money would just go to the NFL. Anyway, this could turn out bad for the NFL and for once I'm rooting against them.

Political Football

I'm not a Patriots fan but this one time it doesn't bother me much that they won. Why? Well, this article pretty well sums it up. Even though I avoided most media in the week leading up to the Super Bowl I was still aware that various sports personalities criticizing Brady and the rest for having ties to Trump. I find this despicable. I still don't like Brady or the Patriots but he made all the right people angry, and that's something.

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I had a thought today: Maybe part of the NFL ratings drop is that people are sick of seeing the same teams over and over? I can watch four games today and I'm sure you can guess the main teams that are being featured. Of course it's Green Bay, New England, and Dallas. The Green Bay and New England games have been practically unwatchable because the commentators spend all their time sucking up to Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Yes, they're very good quarterbacks, but these guys sound like teenage girls fawning over their favorite pop star. Maybe if we had a little more variety and the commentators could act like adults it would help.

How far is too far?

I've been asking myself this since the news came out earlier in the week that there have been discussions about eliminating the kickoff in college football. So far I've been supportive of most of the changes made in the name of player safety, largely because I think a lot of the things that have been eliminated are the result of bad fundamental football to begin with and the game is still essentially the same. Eliminating the kickoff is the sort of change that makes me wonder how far you can go before it's not really same sport anymore, or more importantly, will I still want to watch?

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Would we look at coaches and players in sports differently if their individual sports had catchy names for their semifinal games like the NCAA does? If Izzo's team had advanced to the Final Four and lost instead of throwing up all over themselves in their first game it would have been hailed as an achievement and mentioned every time Izzo's bio was discussed. Dantonio won't get that kind of credit for making it to the football "Final Four" and losing. The same thing is true in the NFL, just ask the Buffalo Bills how much credit they get for winning AFC Championships. Peyton Manning could chime in on the subject too. Even Tom Brady could comment on the idea that going 4-0 in the Super Bowl is somehow better than making it to 6 Super Bowls and losing 2. Are we just dumb about this kind of thing?

QB Results 2015

I thought it would be interesting to take a look back at the fantasy results for quarterback this year. First, the top ten quarterback taken with the round and pick noted:

1. Aaron Rodgers 2-5
2. Andrew Luck 2-8
3. Tom Brady 3-2
4. Peyton Manning 4-6
5. Russell Wilson 4-10
6. Drew Brees 5-4
7. Ben Roethlisberger 6-1
8. Matt Ryan 7-7
9. Tony Romo 7-8
10. Cam Newton 7-9

And here are the top ten quarterbacks in scoring:

1. Cam Newton  497.45
2. Tom Brady  463.60
3. Russell Wilson  444.50
4. Blake Bortles  430.40
5. Carson Palmer  425.95
6. Drew Brees  416.90
7. Eli Manning  401.90
8. Aaron Rodgers  401.45
9. Matthew Stafford  396.60
10. Kirk Cousins  393.10

I think it's fascinating that only five of the top picks ended up top ten in scoring. I guess it's better odds than picking a quarterback in the real draft though.

It begins.

The Lions have a new general manager, Bob Quinn, formerly director of scouting for the New England Patriots. I suppose bringing in someone from such a respected franchise should be encouraging but I find myself wary. First, I think the success of Tom Brady and, to a lesser extent, Julian Edelman gives an inflated impression of the Patriots' drafting prowess. Here's the history. Obviously they have their fair share of hits but I'm not sure the overall record is quite as impressive as people would think. Second, Bill Belichick is the only one who's been able to make the Patriots system work. So far none of his assistants or former executives from the organization have been able to replicate anything near the success he has had. What do you think the chances are that the Lions are the ones who learn all the right lessons?

Stafford Agonistes

I haven't found much interesting to blog about for a while but the Lions pathetic performance Sunday and the benching of Matt Stafford is exactly the fuel I needed to light the fire. Stafford was awful and today I see an article in the Detroit News arguing that the Lions should trade Stafford. Okay, great, then what's your plan? I'll list the starting NFL QBs and tell you if they would be an improvement if the Lions could somehow obtain them.

Tyrod Taylor: No.
Ryan Tannehill: Not really.
Tom Brady: Obviously yes.
Ryan Fitzpatrick: No.
Joe Flacco: Maybe?
Andy Dalton: Yeah, I guess.
Josh McCown: No.
Ben Roethlisberger: Yes.
Brian Hoyer: No.
Andrew Luck: Yes.
Blake Bortles: No, at least not yet.
Marcus Mariota: Not right now.
Peyton Manning: At this point? No.
Alex Smith: Unless you really love the short pass, no.
Derek Carr: No.
Philip Rivers: Yes.
Tony Romo: Yes.
Eli Manning: I guess?
Sam Bradford: I don't think so.
Kirk Cousins: I love the guy, but no.
Jay Cutler: The older version of Stafford? No.
Aaron Rodgers: Emphatic yes.
Teddy Bridgewater: No.
Matt Ryan: Yes.
Cam Newton: Uh, maybe?
Drew Brees: I'm thinking no at this point.
Jameis Winston: Definitely not right now.
Carson Palmer: Yes.
Colin Kaepernick: No.
Russell Wilson: Yes.
Nick Foles: No.

So that's ten QBs that would be an improvement, maybe slightly more if you grade differently. And the draft? Here's an article on the success rate of first-round QBs that pegs the number at 38% or 36% depending on how you measure success. That seems about right to me. So whatever Stafford's problems are, the chances are that dumping him would cause the Lions to be worse at the position. I'm sure that's not a popular opinion in Detroit right now but it's worth keeping in mind.

Helmet Sensors

There's an interesting article at Yahoo about the NFL and helmet sensors. The technology hasn't been perfected yet but it can yield useful data. The main sticking point? The union. Basically, they want the players to have access to the data for health purposes, but they still want to be able to sue the NFL even after they've been shown they might be damaging their health.

"If it don't fit, acquit."

I'm not sure the punishment fits the crime. Wait, no, I'm sure it does not and we all know this will be appealed and probably knocked down to 2 games.

Brady is going to drop Tecmo Super Bowl-like numbers on the Colts when he returns Week 6 at the Colts. You can imagine Al Michaels is going crazy right now because he knows it will be the SNF game of the week on NBC. HUGE ratings. Unfortunately for him, it will not mark Brady's return because he'll be back sooner than 4 games.  Nice knowing you Indy.

I believe Brady is guilty and lied. I'm still wondering why the equipment managers seemed to be jerks about deflating the balls. I read something about exchanged text messages requesting favors from Brady for doing this for him. Like signed footballs, cleats, etc. Really? It's that big of a deal he has to give you signed merchandise? My goodness. Do you work for the Patriots or the CIA? Aren't you all on the same team? Don't you all have the same goal, TO WIN?!? Why are you equipment managers being so uptight? Your star player wants a little air let out of the ball. JUST DO IT! Who do you think you are? Isn't your job to help prepare and get your team whatever it takes to win a game? It's the freakin' AFC Championship! Now, I do realize these texts may have actually taken place in October or November, which is obviously far from the AFC Title game, and was probably going on all year, especially cold weather games, not just the AFC Title game.

But, just so I'm clear, tell me what Tom Brady actually DID to the balls. Was Tom Brady the one who deflated the footballs? If he's not...

Crime and Punishment

It should go without saying that I'm not a fan of Tom Brady or the Patriots. I absolutely think he was involved in breaking the rules and then he lied about it. If he had come clean back before the Super Bowl I probably would have been satisfied with a "small" fine, maybe $50,000 or so? Since he lied about it I think a one-game suspension and a fine would have been reasonable. But a $1 million fine, a four-game suspension, a first-round draft pick, and a fourth-round draft pick? That's harsh. It doesn't bother me, and after listening to ex-players talk about this story over the past few months I'm convinced they're all a bunch of dirty cheaters and it is satisfying to see a major penalty for even a minor infraction, but it's still harsh.

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This NFL offseason is insane.

Super Bowl Thoughts

A few thoughts on the Super Bowl:

-I'm not sure which annoys me more, Marshawn Lynch or his defenders. The job of an NFL player entails more than just playing football on Sunday. Lynch doesn't like talking to the media? Cool. I hate giving presentations, but when my boss tells me I need to give a presentation I do it because it's part of my job and I'm a professional. Lynch needs to grow up instead of being a petulant child.

-I've yet to see anyone who complains that players shouldn't have to talk to the media provide a coherent explanation of exactly how that would work.

-I also can't help but roll my eyes at the hypocrisy of the people whining about the media and the NFL while voraciously consuming every bit of news about the game. Get over yourselves.

-No strong feelings about who will win this one. If I had to pick I'd probably go with the Seahawks but I could easily see it going the other way. Either outcome is going to make for ridiculous commentary on Monday so I'm basically rooting for casualties.

As predicted...

Super Bets

This is a great story. Chris Pratt (Star-Lord) and Chris Evans (Captain America) have placed a bet on the Super Bowl. The loser appears in costume at a children's hospital in the opposite city. There's nothing not to like about it.

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After seeing the news that Max Scherzer is leaving the Tigers for the Nationals I had a thought: From the perspective of a GM, is there a more difficult position to manage in all of sports than a starting pitcher in major league baseball? Quarterback would seem to be close, but quarterback seem to be more consistent once you have a good one. Outside of the rare example (Matt Schaub), you don't see good quarterbacks go from being good to average or bad from one season to the next. You expect that once you have a good quarterback he'll be good for eight years or so. The MLB pitcher who is good for eight years seems to be exceedingly rare. I would think that would drive a GM crazy.

Football Thoughts

College:
 -The Buckeyes winning the national title should have been impossible. I couldn't really root for them, but you have to appreciate what it took to pull off such an improbable season.

-If the story of Cardale Jones was unfolding on a movie screen instead of real life I'd probably walk out of the theater. It's completely ridiculous.

-Does the B1G benefit from OSU's win? I think you have to say yes. The conventional wisdom was a team from the Big Ten couldn't compete at the highest level. MSU started to prove that wrong last year, followed it up again this year, and OSU blew it up completely. I think some, maybe most, of the Power 5 might be better from top to bottom but at least the B1G isn't a laughingstock now.

-I do feel a little bad for Mariota.

-I wasn't a huge fan of the idea of a playoff, but I have to admit it did deliver.

NFL:
-I'm having a hard time maintaining interest in the NFL playoffs. I can't bring myself to root for any of the remaining teams. The only player I like is Russell Wilson, but I can't stand Richard Sherman, so the Seahawks are out.

-Does any quarterback who hasn't won a Super Bowl get more of the benefit of the doubt than Neckbeard? I get that the guy is good, but some of the commentary gets a little ridiculous.

-As the season winds down I was reflecting that I'm going to miss NFL commentary once it ends. Favorite analysts: Trent Dilfer, Mark Schlereth, Brian Billick.

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Does it seem to anyone else that the sports media really, really needs Andrew Luck to be good? No doubt he has great talent, but I find it annoying how he gets a pass on everything that goes wrong, even more than proven guys like Brady and Manning. What's the deal?

Catch

ESPN.com has a great article up about Jim Harbaugh. It doesn't really make me think he's not crazy, but it is an interesting read.