I haven't found much interesting to blog about for a while but the Lions pathetic performance Sunday and the benching of Matt Stafford is exactly the fuel I needed to light the fire. Stafford was awful and today I see an article in the Detroit News arguing that the Lions should trade Stafford. Okay, great, then what's your plan? I'll list the starting NFL QBs and tell you if they would be an improvement if the Lions could somehow obtain them.
Tyrod Taylor: No.
Ryan Tannehill: Not really.
Tom Brady: Obviously yes.
Ryan Fitzpatrick: No.
Joe Flacco: Maybe?
Andy Dalton: Yeah, I guess.
Josh McCown: No.
Ben Roethlisberger: Yes.
Brian Hoyer: No.
Andrew Luck: Yes.
Blake Bortles: No, at least not yet.
Marcus Mariota: Not right now.
Peyton Manning: At this point? No.
Alex Smith: Unless you really love the short pass, no.
Derek Carr: No.
Philip Rivers: Yes.
Tony Romo: Yes.
Eli Manning: I guess?
Sam Bradford: I don't think so.
Kirk Cousins: I love the guy, but no.
Jay Cutler: The older version of Stafford? No.
Aaron Rodgers: Emphatic yes.
Teddy Bridgewater: No.
Matt Ryan: Yes.
Cam Newton: Uh, maybe?
Drew Brees: I'm thinking no at this point.
Jameis Winston: Definitely not right now.
Carson Palmer: Yes.
Colin Kaepernick: No.
Russell Wilson: Yes.
Nick Foles: No.
So that's ten QBs that would be an improvement, maybe slightly more if you grade differently. And the draft? Here's an article on the success rate of first-round QBs that pegs the number at 38% or 36% depending on how you measure success. That seems about right to me. So whatever Stafford's problems are, the chances are that dumping him would cause the Lions to be worse at the position. I'm sure that's not a popular opinion in Detroit right now but it's worth keeping in mind.
1 comment:
Very interesting breakdown. When you first think about it without going through each individual team, it's easy to jump on the bandwagon and say "Yes, time to find a new QB." But, after going team-by-team...he's still in the top 10 and a sub-40% chance isn't worth setting the franchise back another 5-10 years. When you miss on a QB, it's sets a team back x number of years, right? (It seems someone has come up with some logarithm or formula that can compute that.)
What else is interesting is many of the QB's you listed as "yes" may not be in the league in 5 years. Stafford should still have 10 more years unless he keeps getting sacked 8 times a game. For example, yes, Tom Brady would be an improvement. He won't be here in 5 years. Philip Rivers? Nope. 34 in December. (Seems like he's been playing forever in SD.) What about Carson Palmer? Nope. He's 35 already. He was a late bloomer.
Ump
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